Independent valuations of NDIS providers across Australia

Start with the funding mechanism

Participant plans hold core, capacity building and capital budgets, split into support categories and support items, each with a code and a price limit. Revenue depends on the items claimed and on whether the participant is NDIA-managed, plan-managed or self-managed. Registration then decides who the business can serve: the Commission requires it for specialist disability accommodation, specialist behaviour support, plan management, supported independent living and NDIS digital platform services, for regulated restrictive practices, and for any participant whose funding the NDIA manages. That gate is narrow: of 280,258 active providers in the June 2026 quarter, the NDIA recorded 10,842 supporting NDIA-managed participants. The Department of Health, Disability and Ageing is consulting during 2026 on expanding differentiated pricing for unregistered providers. Because the NDIA describes its published prices as appropriate and reasonable maximum prices rather than set fees, earnings come from hours delivered, category mix, utilisation and cost. See government funding exposure.

Reprice the trading history

Pricing settings, claiming rules and item codes move on dated steps, so HPNA reprices historical periods rather than taking reported revenue at face value. Following its annual pricing review, the NDIA replaced the NDIS pricing arrangements and price limits 2025-26 with the NDIS pricing schedule effective 1 July 2026, so periods either side of a 1 July are not comparable, and a margin built on a claiming rule that has since narrowed is not maintainable. Pricing risk is also moving upstream: the NDIA notes that the 2026 amending Act gives the Minister power to make a pricing determination.

Maintainable earnings and the owner

Maintainable earnings are what the business should keep producing year after year under ordinary conditions, struck before interest and tax and reported either before or after depreciation and amortisation. Reaching that figure means stripping one-off items from reported profit, resetting related-party costs to what an unrelated party would charge, and charging a market salary for the owner.

In a small provider the owner holds the support coordinator relationships, builds the roster and manages incidents. That is key-person risk. Personal goodwill attaches to that person and cannot be sold; transferable, or commercial, goodwill attaches to the business through its systems, workforce and documented participant relationships. See maintainable earnings and transferable goodwill.

Participants, plans and dated funding change

SIL funds support workers to help or supervise a participant with high support needs to live in their own home, often across the full day and night. The NDIA reported an average annualised plan budget of $488,200 for participants in SIL at 30 June 2026, so a provider running three homes may draw most of its revenue from a dozen participants and losing one is material. Therapy and community participation providers spread that risk, but face plan exhaustion between reassessments.

Plan rules are changing on published steps. Since 27 August 2026 only the participant, their plan nominee or their guardian can request an unscheduled plan reassessment, and the NDIA has up to 90 days to decide before the request is treated as refused. The Department of Health, Disability and Ageing states that allocations for social, civic and community participation will be cut by 50 per cent and capacity building daily activity allocations by 10 per cent, from 1 October 2026 for new plans and reassessments and from 1 February 2027 for others at renewal, leaving critical supports unaffected. Unspent money stops rolling into a renewed plan from 1 February 2027. HPNA therefore examines plan end dates, budget utilisation, which the NDIA put at 74 per cent for the six months to 31 March 2026, and revenue by participant and referrer. See participant and referral concentration.

Registration: what transfers and what does not

A registration belongs to one ABN, and the Commission states that once linked, that ABN cannot be updated or amended. Sell the assets rather than the entity and the buyer needs its own registration across the same registration groups, which means an audit: verification for lower risk supports, or certification against the NDIS Practice Standards for higher risk supports, with a mid-term audit 18 months in and registration generally running three years.

In a share sale the entity and its ABN continue, so the registration stays with the business. For changes of ownership from 1 July 2026 the Commission requires notification as soon as possible, updated key personnel details, and, where a certification registration group is held and the sale significantly changes governance, a condition audit started within 3 months. Participants must not be moved across automatically, and the participant relationships and SDA dwelling enrolments held in the NDIA's my NDIS provider portal sit with the same ABN.

Registration is widening. SIL and NDIS digital platform providers have needed registration since 1 July 2026, and a SIL provider that had not applied by 1 October 2026 must stop delivering SIL. From 1 July 2027 registration extends to higher risk supports, which the Department has said may include personal care and daily living supports, and all in-scope providers must be registered by December 2030. Most providers must also enrol with the NDIA from 1 July 2027 and be paid into a validated bank account. Registration is not goodwill, but its conditions and the audit needed to obtain it decide who can buy the business.

Workforce, wages and compliance

Most support workers are employed under the Social, Community, Home Care and Disability Services Industry Award (the SCHADS Award, MA000100), and labour is the dominant cost. The Fair Work Ombudsman states that minimum award wages rose 4.75 per cent from the first full pay period on or after 1 July 2026, and the ATO now requires super guarantee contributions to reach the employee's fund within 7 business days of payday, at 12 per cent of qualifying earnings rather than ordinary time earnings, which brings cash forward. Sleepovers and active nights, penalty rates, broken shifts and agency use then decide whether the margin holds. Workers in risk-assessed roles and key personnel need NDIS Worker Screening clearances, and the payroll tax treatment of contractor arrangements should be confirmed with your accountant.

Compliance history is part of earnings quality. Reportable incidents must be notified within 24 hours of the provider becoming aware of them, records of the payment and receipt of NDIS funds must be kept for 7 years, and the Commission publishes banning orders, compliance notices, undertakings and suspensions on its register. The Minister for the NDIS reported 111 banning orders in the June 2026 quarter, the most in any single quarter, with 229 registrations refused and 453 revoked. HPNA reviews audit reports, incident and complaints registers and regulator correspondence. See workforce.

Choosing the method

An established provider is normally valued by capitalising maintainable earnings at a multiple carrying the risks set out above. That gives enterprise value, the value of the operations regardless of funding. Equity value, what the shares are worth, is enterprise value less debt plus surplus cash, after assessing working capital, including unpaid, held and rejected claims and accrued wages and leave. Where earnings are about to move, a discounted cash flow tells a buyer more than any multiple can. Net assets, assets less liabilities, is the floor and often the primary method for an SDA property entity. See how to value an NDIS business.